Estimation

Estimation

What Can Goldilocks Teach about Software Estimating?

You may not be aware that in 1837 when Robert Southey published his popular retelling of the Three Bears story, the U.S. experienced the “Panic of 1837,” a financial crisis that touched off a decade long recession featuring unemployment, pessimism, lowered profits/prices/wages, and blamed on domestic and foreign origins. While we might consider 1837 a simpler time - it was without modern conveniences like indoor plumbing, the internet, and supersonic travel – some aspects of human behavior and communication aren’t that much different today. I thought about this when I was keynoting the 20th anniversary EuroSPI2 conference (software process improvement) in Ireland, the same week that I read the following in the British press

“The Department for Work and Pensions has dropped a coalition government scheme to avert software disasters from its £2bn Universal Credit programme” forecasting the cancelation of the largest ever agile software development project – a project now four plus years behind schedule with potentially billions of taxpayer funds at risk.  

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Estimation

Webinar - Bringing Estimation and Business Intelligence to the Enterprise

Watch the webinar replay for Bringing Estimation and Business Intelligence to the Enterprise, presented by Keith Ciocco.

Successful software development estimates depend upon more than just inputs, especially at the enterprise level. They require collaboration between stakeholders, consistency in estimation methods, and historical basis. It's also essential to account for uncertainty and risk. In this webinar, Keith Ciocco demonstrates how SLIM-Estimate and SLIM-WebServices work together to bring reliable business intelligence to the enterprise, while leveraging historical data to increase estimation accuracy and credibility.

As Vice President of QSM, Keith has more than 25 years of experience working in sales and customer service, with 17 of those years spent at QSM. Keith's primary responsibilities include managing business development, existing client relations, customer retention and response.

Watch the replay!

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Webinars Estimation

New Article - All In: Collaborative Software Estimates

Collaborative Software EstimationSoftware projects often commit to unrealistic schedule and budget expectations due to little or no information about the size and scope or productivity. Yet the business reality is that projects must be estimated early in the life cycle to support business goals and strategic planning. These challenges can be overcome with a transparent and collaborative estimation process. It depends on metrics collection, analysis, risk comparison, and a structure for sharing the right information with the right people at the right time.

In an article recently published on Projects at Work, Laura Zuber explores the benefits of collaborative software project estimates and identifies best practices for implementing them.

Read the full article!

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Estimation Articles

How to Use Big Data to Improve Your Software Projects

In the recent Washington Post article How the Obama Campaign Won the Race for Voter Data, Joel Kowsky writes about how the 2012 Obama campaign used analytics to improve their campaign strategy, and to ultimately secure the presidential victory.  

Regardless of where you stand on the political spectrum, it’s hard to argue that Barack Obama’s campaign strategy was anything short of impressive.  As soon as Obama took office in 2009, his team began preparing for his 2012 campaign.  From the start there was a strong emphasis on measuring the campaign’s progress.  Jim Messina, Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, stated 

“There’s always been two campaigns since the Internet was invented, the campaign online and the campaign on the doors.  What I wanted was, I didn’t care where you organized, what time you organized, how you organized, as long as I could track it, I can measure it, and I can encourage you to do more of it.”

The team began by conducting a postmortem study on their 2008 campaign where they analyzed the number of homes visited, phone calls placed, and voters registered by each field organizer and volunteer.  The result was a 500 page report which highlighted areas of improvement for the 2012 campaign.  

The suggestions led the Obama campaign to invest in building customized software that would integrate all the data the campaign had collected on voters, donors, and volunteers and link to individual voter profile.  This software analyzed previously collected data to calculate the likelihood of candidate support, the likelihood of election day turnout, and the degree of persuasion for each voter.  

New Article: Is It Bigger Than a Breadbox? Getting Started with Release Estimation

It’s becoming clear to organizations adopting Agile methods that one still needs to estimate how long a project or a release of a product will take. It won’t suffice for businesses to simply take guesses or accept unreasonable constraints. We must be able to derive credible estimates, based on a history of similar projects. How can we estimate a project in advance while still maintaining the ability to manage the backlog in an agile manner?

In this article, recently published on Projectmanagement.com, QSM's Andy Berner answers that question, compares release-level estimation to the techniques used for iteration estimation, and gives some pointers on getting started with release estimation in an agile environment.

Andy Berner is a software engineer and methodologist. He came to QSM in 2012 after over 25 years in both large and small software organizations, including, among others, EDS (now HP), Rational Software and IBM. Based on his experience in almost every role in software development, Andy has consulted with numerous organizations on using software development methods and tools to improve productivity and quality.

Read the full article here!

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Estimation Agile Articles

"Building an Estimation Center of Excellence" Webinar Replay and Q&A Highlights

If you were unable to attend "Building an Estimation Center of Excellence," the webinar replay and slides are now available. Here are the Q&A highlights:

How do you handle estimating change requests (scope creep). Do you estimate the entire project again, or do you just estimate the impact of the change requests?

It would depend on where we were in the project lifecycle. If we were still fairly early on (somewhere between the feasibility assessment and the refined estimate), I would add those into my sizing assumptions and re-estimate the project. If I'm already farther along and I get changes when I'm already constructing the system, then I would use my adaptive forecasting and add those in within the context of everything else I have to build as part of the deliverable release. This is because the impact will be bigger if we're farther along and we already have everything integrated and we're into testing versus earlier on when not a lot has been constructed. QSM's forecasting capabilities will be able to tell us the impact on schedule and cost.

Should the center of excellence estimate all projects regardless of size, or if the project is small, then have the project teams estimate it?

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Webinars Estimation

Updated Performance Benchmark Table

The latest version of QSM’s Performance Benchmark Table is live!

QSM is excited to announce the release of their latest version of the Performance Benchmark Table.  Last updated in 2009, the table provides a high-level reference for benchmarking and estimating IT, Engineering, and Real Time Systems.  It displays industry average duration, effort, staff, and SLOC (or FP) per Person Month for the full range of project sizes encompassed by each trend group. 

The results were analyzed from a database of 1,115 high or moderate confidence projects completed between 2008 and 2012.  Sixteen countries and 52 different languages were represented in this sample.  In addition to the industry average, minimum and maximum values were also provided for each metric to help give a range of possible results.

The project sizes differed somewhat from the previous version to accommodate the new range of sizes present in the data.  Rather than using the same project sizes across trend groups, we selected project sizes specific to each trend.  Since Business projects are typically smaller than Engineering or Real Time projects, this allows readers to select a size relevant to the type of project they’re estimating or benchmarking.  

This tool can be particularly useful to developers and/ or project managers who are new to estimation or do not have historical project data.  

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Benchmarking Estimation

Webinar - Building an Estimation Center of Excellence

On Thursday, June 13, at 1:00 PM EDT, Larry Putnam, Jr. will present Building an Estimation Center of Excellence.

The pressure to succeed in software development is higher than ever - the current economic climate demands we do more with less, there is fierce global and domestic competition, time-to-market expectations are high, and your company's reputation is on the line. When projects fail, the failure to meet expectations is more often an estimation or business decision failure than a production or execution issue. In this webinar, industry expert Larry Putnam, Jr. takes you through the key elements and step-by-step process for setting up an estimation center of excellence that will ensure your projects succeed.

Larry Putnam, Jr. has 25 years of experience using the Putnam-SLIM Methodology. He has participated in hundreds of estimation and oversight service engagements, and is responsible for product management of the SLIM Suite of software measurement tools and customer care programs. Since becoming Co-CEO, Larry has built QSM's capabilities in sales, customer support, product requirements and most recently in creating a world class consulting organization. Larry has delivered numerous speeches at conferences on software estimation and measurement, and has trained - over a five-year period - more than 1,000 software professionals on industry best practice measurement, estimation and control techniques and in the use of the SLIM Suite.

Watch the replay!

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Webinars Estimation

Estimating for the Business Plan

Having worked in sales and customer service at QSM for over 17 years, I speak to hundreds of professionals each year that are directly or indirectly involved with software development projects using many different development processes. One of the things that I hear from time to time is that estimating is not as important when working with more iterative development methodologies. Some of the reasons I hear most often are that “team sizes are smaller,” “work can be deferred until the next iteration,” “we are different,” and “we are agile.”

As I dig deeper though, I find that the fundamental questions that software estimates answer are relevant, no matter what development methodology is being used. Before committing to a project, executives and managers need to determine reasonable cost, schedule, and how much they can deliver. This is when not very much is known and before any detailed planning occurs.  Estimating helps mitigate risk early in the project lifecycle. Companies also need to have reliable information in order to negotiate with clients. How can we negotiate a schedule and a budget on any project without a defensible estimate? 

When looking at QSM research based on our database of over 10,000 industry projects, a common theme that we see in failed projects is that development team performance is often not the issue. When it comes to missed schedules and budgets, many of the problems occur when expectations are too high and when estimates are not a priority. If we don’t have a reliable estimate up front before the project starts, it’s tough to plan ahead. 

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Estimation

What Basketball Can Teach Us About Software Estimation

I discovered early on that the player who learned the fundamentals of basketball is going to have a much better chance of succeeding and rising through the levels of competition than the player who was content to do things his own way. A player should be interested in learning why things are done a certain way. The reasons behind the teaching often go a long way to helping develop the skill. — John Wooden

John Wooden is regarded as one of the greatest college basketball coaches. He believed that after talent, courage, and character, fundamentals built successful teams. Successful software projects result from knowing and practicing fundamentals as well, and it begins with estimation.

I thought it would be fun to see if Coach Wooden, by way of noted quotes, could help simplify a few SLIM core concepts.

John Wooden

SLIM Core Concepts

"Don't let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do."

Estimates are uncertain. The accuracy of your estimate depends on the detail and relevance of the data upon which it is derived. Do not succumb to “paralysis by analysis.” You cannot commit to a detailed estimate early in the life cycle because you simply do not have the data to support it.  What you can do is generate a reasonable expected result within a range of potential outcomes based upon industry data or your past performance. The estimate will be good enough to allow data-driven decisions and negotiations.  You can improve the estimate as soon as more detailed information is available.

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Estimation